[Peakoil] Important Announcement

[Keith Thomas]

On 28/02/2006, at 9:59 AM, leigh.kite at medicareaustralia.gov.au wrote:

> Blessed are pessimists, for they make backup plans!  :)
>
> There's no doubt about it that the species is in for a rough ride over  
> the next century or two, but don't ever forget that: -
>
> *     We have to be realistic, however if people visualise bad then  
> bad is what will manifest.  Be prepared, but stay positive.
>
I don't see it as wholly bad. There are 6.3 bn of us on this planet and  
we are stuffing up the rest of the biosphere. I'd say relieving the  
pressure on the rest of the biosphere is a pretty good thing.

> *     We're all part a whole, that whole being the human race.  It's  
> fundamentally wrong to just give up and walk away,

Statements like this are easily made without thinking them through. In  
fact it's a matter of judgement - the judgement to be made in the light  
of the circumstances. i won't go into details here, but the writings of  
Daniel Quinn (especially "Beyond Civilization") provide a succinct  
statement which carries the work of Jared Diamond ("Collapse") and  
Ronald Wright ("A Short History of Progress") to their logical  
conclusions.

> especially when you're the kind of person who is in a position to help  
> out.  The
> race doesn't advance because a few people live shining lives in  
> isolation, the race lurches forward periodically because a
> few shining people manage to spread just a little bit of their light,  
> leaving an impression on humanity forever.

The notion of advancement seems to me eerily like the notion of  
"progress". It was "progress" that got us to peak oil. The idea of  
racial advance I'm not sure about.
>
> As far as committees and decision making goes, its necessary to have  
> them.
> Without communication and planning, we wouldn't have advanced to where  
> we
> are today.  The moment any kind of process detracts value from  
> whatever it
> is I need to get done, I vapourise it.  The board will be using a  
> mostly
> independent peer to peer model with very lightweight process, ie the
> minimum necessary for us to function, and I don't anticipate lack of
> efficiency due to bureaucracy.
>
> Your choice not to participate is probably for the best, you do come  
> across as a very independant person.

I tend to independence from formal institutions. The more formal they  
are, the further I want to be from them. The other side of this is that  
I am prepared to surrender a lot of independence to work easily with  
others in a family or group. I know I can do this - hey, being married  
for 30 years is good training for the decade beginning in about 2008  
:-). But it's impossible to be rigid about this. Australia has huge gas  
reserves and may APPEAR to have ample space for human settlement. There  
may come a time when China, India, Taiwan or Indonesia decide they need  
some of these resources, particularly in the light of pollution  
(China), soil destruction (Indonesia) and the likely permanent failure  
of the Indian monsoon (it's more likely to have an early impact than  
the melting of the Greenland iceap) and they will acquire them by  
conquest rather than through the market. Should that happen, I may be  
thankful for State institutions to 'repel boarders'. There is another  
aspect of the period after peak that I have not seen discussed: the  
response of organized crime (and, for that matter, local petty crime).  
People who are in urban settings will be vulnerable, whereas those out  
on the margins with few possessions will be safest.

> I do look forward to your ideas and expertise when planning our  
> various projects and campaigns.  :)

Ah! So I still get to have some fun!

Keith
>
> Cheers,
>
> Leigh
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
> -----

> I have thought about this long and hard. I'd love to help and my
> instinct is to join in. It'll be a challenge, but fun working with you.
> But I have allowed my rational mind to talk me out of it. I am already
> spread quite thin now. As you know, I think climate change is the
> bigger one and that's where I'll be focusing my public energies.
> Another reason for declining is that I have switched over the past
> couple of years to a down-shifted lifestyle (cutting my income by 75%)
> and making myself about as peak oil-ready as I can get in Canberra.
> This means I spend (a) between 5 and 20 hours a week in my garden, (b)
> another ten hours in the kitchen and (c) another eight hours a week
> cycling - doing what wage-earners spend just a few hours doing (i) in
> the supermarket, (ii) in front of the microwave and (iii) behind the
> wheel of a car. There's not a lot of leeway there!
>
> A few further thoughts. These are pretty extreme, so read no further if
> you don't want to read about a possibly unpleasant future.
>
> Traditional social structures (committees, constitution, minutes) are
> in danger of bogging you down and hampering you. You'll have a meeting
> and believe you have done something (that's a sure sign the rot has set
> in :-).  I am doing my stuff (observing my garden as I water it by
> hand, learning what to take notice of among my chooks, maintaining my
> physical fitness and friendships and sharpening all sorts of useful
> skills that don't require fuel or electricity).
>
> The old system is pretty much on its last legs (at peak the partying is
> the hardest it will ever be) and none of us know what it will look like
> ten years from now. I expect that I'll be able to ride it out better
> than 90% of the population. I could survive for years with no income at
> all (that wouldn't be in Canberra!), not because I have stockpiled
> stuff - just knowledge, attitudes, skills, good health and friends. I
> can travel light. Each person who knows about peak oil (and climate
> change and other perils) may be better off preparing quietly, and not
> talking to anyone else about the problem, as the more people who are
> prepared, the worse off they'll all be - millions of people will die
> worldwide, so you might as well make it easy on yourself.
>
> There are good reasons for incorporating ACT Peak Oil. But all these
> are predicated upon 'business as usual'. One thing we know is that
> there won't be business as usual for more than about four years. If you
> slot in with the reality-denying mainstream then you'll get results
> that match.
>
> However, if there was a peak oil / climate change action committee (the
> emphasis on action) with a community mandate to provide solutions
> (think up, build and run - without the debilitating requirement for
> consultation) for communities to weather PO and climate change, that
> would be better. Remember the magnificent, rule-breaking mobilization
> to deal with Cyclone Tracey?
>
> At Nature and Society Forum we are working on a "Social Change
> Project". This looks at a whole raft of issues (climate change,
> pollution, ozone depletion, biodiversity, water, salinity, energy
> depletion, urban design, transport, nutrient cycles, human population,
> soil health, GM, human health and others) under a single scientific
> paradigm with a view to proposing social change sufficient to reduce
> the worst of the effects that are amenable to reduction. Perhaps it's
> quixotic, perhaps it's futile, but it's a genuine attempt to do
> something practical - even if it is politically incorrect. We need more
> volunteers to help with that, so it you are interested .....
>
> Best wishes
>
> Keith
>
> On 15/02/2006, at 6:46 PM, Leigh Kite wrote:
>
>> All,
>>
>> The time has finally come for ACT Peak Oil to become more than a bunch
>> of people sending email around, or attending the occasional stall.
>>
>> As Alex announced recently, he's being paid for the Senate submission
>> by the cycle dudes, and we want a bank account for this.
>>
>> To open a bank account with signatories in the name of an
>> organisation, we need a constitution describing how we operate, and
>> letterhead/logo for identification purposes, as well as minutes
>> detailing the decision.
>>
>> We need to form an exec committee, and we need cash to open the
>> account with.  Buy in will probably be around $50, so along with Alex,
>> Sarah and I we're looking for two to three members to join us, who can
>> commit a few hours a week this coming year for active political
>> engagement and community awareness raising.
>>
>> If anyone wants in, please contact me ASAP
>>