[Peakoil] Tom Waring

[Shane S]

Hi guys

I just thought to see who Tom Waring is.

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s55703.htm

"According to Tom Waring, who manages Minerals Research at the Australian 
Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, most of Australia's gold is 
being sold for well above the spot price as it is."

He brings up so many unsupported assertions it is going to be difficult to 
address them all in any substantial way.

Perhaps it would be best to focus on just three things?

1. The spectacular decline rates of north sea fields (~10% per year) as a 
result of "advanced extraction technology".

2. The well established decline in Australian production. Regardless of what 
happens elsewhere Australia is destined to become more vulnerable to oil 
dependency.

3. Does Tom seriously believe that the middle east or central africa could 
become stable "tomorrow"?

4. High oil prices are already reducing car use. Public transport systems in 
Australia are experiencing sharply increased patronage. Rather than filling 
our already gridlocked cities with hydrogen cars for every man, woman and 
child we should be investing in more efficient public transport 
alternatives.

Ill be happy to draft this up and send it off if no-one has any factual 
objections

Shane

>From: "Jenny Goldie" <jgoldie at snowy.net.au>
>To: "ACT Peak Oil discussion Oil discussion" <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
>Subject: [Peakoil] feel free to reply!
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>from today's letters pages in the CT:
>
>Oil pessimists
>
>Jenny Goldie worries the world is almost out of oil, fearing it'll get 
>really expensive soon. Antony Barry is concerned Australia won't be able to 
>import crude and that Canberra will be among the hardest hit (Letters, June 
>28). They're pessimists.
>
>There are reasons why the oil price could fall significantly. And anyway, 
>high crude prices won't stop car use.
>
>In addition to sustained, strong global (especially Chinese/Indian) demand, 
>oil's high price includes premiums for confrontation with Iran, chaos in 
>Iraq and instability in several other supply countries. Any of that could 
>change tomorrow.
>
>For example, sharemarkets are jittery right now about a possible US/global 
>slowdown. Oil demand would follow. But it's on the supply side that the big 
>responses can be predicted.
>
>Until fairly recently, oil was expected to keep on averaging around 
>$US25-a-barrel ($A34). We are yet to see the impact of sustained 
>$US50-plus-a-barrel ($A68) prices on global production.
>
>In addition to rendering viable tar sands, shale, gas/coal-to-liquids, etc 
>options, high prices have seen rapid application of technological advances 
>in exploration and well recovery, every drilling rig in the world working 
>and every Russian, Central Asian, deeper-water, smaller-field option being 
>diligently investigated. Supply will rise substantially.
>
>Simultaneously, with increasing confidence that $50-oil is here to stay and 
>reduced fuel security comes accelerated fuel substitution.
>
>Canberra's new cars will be much more fuel efficient. Increasing numbers 
>will use electricity and hydrogen/fuel cells. All manufacturers have them 
>ready now.
>
>Jenny, Antony and others will buy them. Canberra needs to plan the 
>infrastructure for them.
>
>Tom Waring, Ainslie
>
>
>


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