[Peakoil] DVD - "Peak Oil: imposed by Nature" free copy

[Keith Thomas]

I was disappointed by this DVD (see my review from this list in August 
last year), but have heard others speak highly of it. I have not 
watched it a second time. Seems a pity for it lie dormant if it can be 
of some use, so if anyone wants it, they can collect it from my place 
in Ainslie.

The End of Suburbia is, in my view, far better.
--------------------------------------------
Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
--------------------------------------------

I have just watched the video "Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature" which was
released in the UK last month.  The title carries with it the main
message Colin Campbell seems to be making in the documentary: peak oil
is imposed by nature, so governments should 'come out' and tell us
that; we can then join together in preparing for the future.  Until
governments do this, he says there'll be conspiracy theories, with
those who are aware blaming government and the oil companies.

I don't have a tv or a DVD player so I went next door to watch it
(first time I have ever used a DVD in a player).  I tell you this to
let you know I am not a sophisticated user of the medium.

In my view the DVD takes 28 minutes to tell us what could have been
conveyed in about 5 minutes if it wasn't strung out with supposedly
clever use of images – which I found to be an irritation, especially
when there was nothing being said. I didn't need a sequence of Campbell
playing the accordion, or Campbell walking along the clifftops.

Apart from Campbell's message, the thing I found most useful overall
was the non-American accents of Campbell and a young English risk
analyst.  Matt Simmons has a mild American accent (he was interviewed
in London) and Michael Ruppert appeared too.

The DVD opens with a strung-out story if Campbell being monitored by
the CIA to see how close ASPO is to breaking into the public
consciousness. It claims "vested interests and other forces have
done their utmost to prevent the information from reaching the public
consciousness".

Campbell makes the important point that "we have not been here before".
   No one can predict what will happen.  The complexity of our economy,
our society and our environment and their interactions is such that
there are no experts.  Some people will talk and write about it more
than others, but no one knows more than anyone else about the future.

Although the DVD case says "it draws up lines of possible consequences
for mankind", I found these very light-on – for the reason, no doubt,
that I have just mentioned.

Campbell is filmed in Stavanger (the '-anger' rhymes with banger and
hangar, not danger; the emphasis is on the second syllable) and there
is some Norwegian language content translated with subtitles. While in
Norway, Campbell tracks the arrival at their peak of the North Sea oil
and gas fields.

The risk analyst draws on his past experience to say that when an
isolated incident (like a single refinery going off line for a few days
or a storm in the Gulf of Mexico disrupting supplies) has a notable
effect on global prices, it points to the situation approaching a
crisis point.

Simmons's first contribution was of limited value; I don't think he
prepared for it and seems to be in the documentary only because he is
Matthew Simmons.  For what it's worth he did say "Demand will exceed
supply, and supply equals use".

His second contribution was the obvious one that problems – even
problems as big as this one – don't need to destroy society, but they
are far more likely to do so if we leave them unattended for long
enough.

His third contribution was that if you think climate change scores 3
out of ten in terms of its impact, then peak oil scores ten out of ten.
(Which is about what you'd expect from an American suit.)

A Norwegian-speaking (?) member of Simmons's staff predicts that a
massive rise in coal consumption will replace oil, especially in China.
   He is aware of the immense environmental impact this will have.

Chris Skrebowski looked into the future a bit: "We have to face the
possibility that we will have to give a much larger role to government"
and that the government would find itself in an almost wartime
situation with regard to the need for rationing.  He predicts the
military and the police would receive priority; but he did not mention
who would be third – no mention of agriculture!

Campbell was filmed talking to an almost empty committee room at the
House of Commons taking to a few MPs.  I think I saw about 6 and
guessed there might have been 10.  Campbell said later there were
20-30.  Perhaps the others didn't want to be recorded in such company!
Notably no ministers turned up.  Campbell says ministers won't comment
"for fear of causing the panic which they are working to prevent."

There's a lovely, if brief, shot of a wheelwright in India putting the
finishing touches to the steel hoop on a wooden cartwheel.  The message
is that peak oil will affect most the greatest consumers of oil, not
the places like India. I predict we'll be enticing Indian wheelwrights
to Australia in the future, not Indian computer programmers.

The documentary finishes with the statement that "Colin Campbell and
Matthew Simmons are probably the most important whistleblowers of our
time. If now only those in power and our politicians might show a
similar civil courage ... we have zero time!"

The credits say that it was produced with support of "Freedom of
Expression Federation, Oslo and the Norwegian Film Fund"
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