[Peakoil] News items on peak oil 30 Jan 2006

[Antony Barry]

Begin forwarded message:

> Date: 30 January 2006 5:03:11 AM
> Subject: DEVONagent: 10 results (news)
>
> Hurry Up and Kuwait - Raise the Hammer (ISSN: 1715-1554)
>
> The earth's oil reserves just dropped by five percent. Which other  
> countries are cooking the books?
> I have been watching the price of oil creep back up toward $70 per  
> barrel from its anticlimactic drop after Hurricane Katrina  
> disrupted oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Prices fell as the  
> US and Europe released oil from their strategic reserves to help  
> make up the shortfall.
> Today, those reserves are depleted and prices are creeping back up  
> despite our unseasonably warm winter, which has reduced demand for  
> heating oil and allowed cars to run much more efficiently than they  
> would...
>
> <http://www.raisethehammer.org/index.asp?id=234>
>
>
> Staring down the barrel of a crisis | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil  
> News Clearinghouse
>
> The world's oil production may be about to reach its peak -  
> forever. Such apocalyptic prophecies often surface in the middle of  
> the northern hemisphere winter. What is unusual is that this time  
> the doomsday scenario has gained serious credibility among  
> respected analysts and commentators.
> So serious that a network of scientists affiliated with European  
> institutions and universities has formed the Association for the  
> Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Aspo) with a mandate "to determine the  
> date and impact of the peak and decline of the world's production  
> of oil and gas, due to resource constraints".
> Aspo's...
>
> <http://www.energybulletin.net/4044.html>
>
>
> How to deceive friends and influence people: Oil crisis lies |  
> EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
>
> "For the longer term, scenarios to raise [Saudi] capacity [from  
> claimed 11 million] to 15 million barrels per day have also been  
> studied and can be set in motion if the global demand requires it,"  
> Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister said at a Conference at  
> Chatham House, London 29 November 2004. Saudi Arabia is the world’s  
> largest oil producer, with the greatest oil reserves, and is thus  
> the lynchpin of OPEC. Historically, as the ‘Swing Producer’, Saudi  
> Arabia has made up shortfalls from other producing countries. OPEC  
> supplies 30 million of the 80+ million barrels the world...
>
> <http://www.energybulletin.net/4716.html>
>
>
> The Oil Drum | Comments | What would we have predicted for Kuwait?
>
> Total for all four: 169 Gb & 16 years. These four countries account  
> for the majority of net world oil exports.
> In regard to Russian production, the most recent data I have seen  
> is off the EIA website (I believe that it is basically flat year  
> over year). In any case, I think that the key point is that  
> Russia's production, while it has rebounded from the post Soviet  
> Union collapse, has not reached the Eighties' peak. Therefore, it  
> has not shown increasing production--relative to the Eighties peak-- 
> beyond 55% of Qt.
> Based on the individual plots, following are...
>
> <http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/1/20/193723/259/70>
>
>
> The Oil Drum | Comments | What would we have predicted for Kuwait?
>
> For now I would be cautious in reading too much into the Reuters  
> report which is pretty damn vague. The detail will be important,  
> what are the reserves by field, especially Burgan? There may be  
> direct implications for some of Iraq's southern reserves.
> If the Reuters report is accurate this news could be quite seismic.  
> On the bright side it may create overwhelming pressure for a proper  
> audit and assessment of mid east reserves. On the dark side, if  
> Stuart's method of calculating URR for Saudi and Kuwait is an  
> accurate predictor we are possibly past global half...
>
> <http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/1/20/193723/259/3>
>
>
> The Oil Drum | Comments | What would we have predicted for Kuwait?
>
> Many people have asked why the major oil companies (especially  
> ExxonMobil) and OPEC (especially Saudi Arabia) are providing much  
> more optimistic assessments of their reserves than the Hubbert  
> Linearization method indicates. There are probably a lot of  
> reasons, but I think this year there are two primary reasons: taxes  
> and war (respectively).
> If there are very few big fields left to be found and if oil prices  
> are going up to $200 per barrel in 2005 dollars by 2010 (Simmons'  
> prediction), major oil companies are going to be making a killing  
> producing their remaining reserves, and they won't be...
>
> <http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/1/20/193723/259/23>
>
>
> The Oil Drum | Comments | What would we have predicted for Kuwait?
>
> Which is going to hapen first: OPEC nations will admit they lied in  
> the 1980s, or Ali al-Naimi will finally announce that Saudi Arabia  
> will double its proven reserves to something like 464 Gb?
> How long can he keep up the charade that Saudi Arabia will "soon"  
> double its proven reserves , when in fact, it looks like those  
> reserves should more likely be halved.
> Well, knowing the beloved and esteemed Ali Al-Naimi as we do, I'll  
> expect more delusional reserves inflation coming soon not only from  
> Saudi Arabia but Iran too. As for Iraq, who knows? The...
>
> <http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/1/20/193723/259/37>
>
>
> Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
>
> The Hubbert curve , devised by M. King Hubbert , is a model of  
> future oil availability.
> 2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in  
> OPEC and the former Soviet Union
> The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil", concerns the  
> long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel )  
> extraction and depletion. It is named after American geophysicist  
> M. King Hubbert , who created a model of known reserves, and  
> proposed, in 1956 , in a paper he presented [1] at a meeting of the  
> American Petroleum Institute, that oil production in the  
> continental United States would peak...
>
> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil>
>
>
> The Oil Drum | A Community Discussion about Peak Oil
>
> Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Saturday) The Oil Drum  
> FT: Rita causes record damage to oil rigs
> Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, will "soon" almost  
> double its proven reserve base, adding 200 billion barrels to the  
> current estimate of 264 billion, said the nation's oil minister,  
> Ali al-Naimi.
> ...."There will be plenty of oil available to meet future demand,"  
> al-Naimi said today in Johannesburg. Prices are high now because  
> "the petroleum industry faces infrastructure constraints and  
> bottlenecks that are causing market volatility and restricting its  
> ability to bring oil from the ground to...
>
> <http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/9/27/18351/0648>
>
>
> Kuwait Confession - ASPO Ireland (Peak Oil)
>
> It is difficult to explain the implausible increase in reported  
> reserves in 1985. Prior to the increase, it reported reserves of 64  
> Gb, having produced 22 Gb, meaning that the Original Reserves were  
> 86 Gb, which is close to the 90 Gb it reported in 1985. So, the  
> simplest explanation is that it changed from reporting Remaining to  
> Original reserves, which would also explain why the subsequent  
> estimates have not declined in parallel with production.
> But there is an alternative explanation in terms of improved  
> recovery. If the 86 Gb reported as found by 1984 was based on a  
> traditional...
>
> <http://www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/688>
>
>

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