[Peakoil] WA Premier quits over depression

[Antony Barry]

On 16 Jan 2006, at 9:53 PM, David Jorm wrote:

> Just a side note on that article re: gaia theory. In year 9 science  
> we learned about the theory of evolution and the teacher said it  
> was only still called a theory because of the powerful opposition  
> of religious groups. In first year university geography we learned  
> about gaia theory and the lecturer said it was only still called a  
> theory because of the powerful opposition of industry lobby groups.  
> It occurs to me the consumerist-industrial-capitalist-perpetual- 
> growth-world is really just a religion anyway :)

As was pointed out in a recent article in the Canberra times the  
problem is the use of the word "theory" and its multiple meanings. If  
somebody in the pub tells you he as a theory to explain something you  
realise that it may well be idle speculation and false. If a  
scientist tells you there is a theory s/he means that there is a body  
of observations which are explained by the theory and which makes  
testable predictions usually of a numeric nature.  A verified or  
accepted theory has had it's predictions confirmed.

In common usage a theory is speculation. In science it's testable  
explanation. They are different things. In common usage to say  
something is a theory implies it is less likely to be true whereas in  
science a theoretical prediction is more likely to be true and if  
found to be false the theory need to be modified or abandoned if a  
better one can be found which matches the observations.

The other problem is our adversarial culture and the way the media  
handles disagreement. If you can call something a theory it calls it  
into doubt. If there there are multiple "theories" they are reported  
as if they have equal worth. Thence peak oil is "only a theory" and  
is "balanced" against the invisible hand of the market which solves  
all problems.

Tony


phone : 02 6241 7659 | mailto:me at Tony-Barry.emu.id.au
mobile: 04 1242 0397 | http://tony-barry.emu.id.au