[Peakoil] FYI Oil peak Section of the Conservation Council Submission

[Adrian Whitehead]

Oil peak Section of the Conservation Council Submission

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Adrian Whitehead
Water & Climate Campaigner
Conservation Council of the SE Region and Canberra
P: 6247 7808
F: 6248 5343
M: 0403 735 118

Oil and Gas Reserves
Numerous international experts on global oil supply have postulated that the
peak in global oil production has already occurred or will occur within the
next few years while others such as the International Energy Agency have
predicted a peak of conventional oil between 2010 and 2020.

The US Energy Information Administration (a part of the US Department of
Energy) predict that the global oil peak could occur anytime from 2021 under
an annual 3% demand growth rate to 2112 under a  0% demand growth rate
(growth rate is around 2% for 2005).

Some countries are recognising the threat that a peak in global oil
production will have on their economy. Sweden for example has recognised the
threat of a global oil peak and is seeking to be become oil free by 2020.
The failure of the Australian government to seriously contemplate impacts of
the global oil peak at timings other than the most extremely optimistic
estimate as evidenced in “Securing Australia’s Energy Future June 2004”, has
left Australia and its economy in a vulnerable position.

Given the serious nature of a continuing significant increase in oil price
on our economy, the ACT Government should immediately implement plans to
reduce our reliance on oil and independently assess the impacts of a peak in
global oil production.

The following are a number of actions that could be taken:
•	Commence the immediate building of a substantial light rail system
within the Canberra region, which as a minimum connects the major town
centres including, Civic, the heavy rail station in Kingston and the
Canberra airport.
•	Lobby for an upgrade of the heavy rail line between the ACT and
Sydney.
•	Lobby for the establishment of a very fast train link from Sydney to
Melbourne via Canberra.
•	Support differential pricing of registration of fuel efficient cars.

•	Continue to encourage more people to use alternate forms of
transport such as public transport, cycling and walking.
•	The ACT Government should conduct an independent investigation into
the global oil peak and growing global oil demand and potential impacts of
Canberra. This should include assessing options including non petrol
vehicular based alternatives which include electric power, hydrogen and air
powered cars.

An increase in global oil prices will have a significant effect on our
natural gas supplies. Firstly, given that natural gas can be directly
substituted for petrol its price will rise along with petrol unless our
remaining reserves are dedicated for domestic use outside of existing market
based systems. Secondly, estimates of longevity of our gas reserves are
likely to be significantly less than current estimates as gas starts to be
substituted for petrol or if we increase our commitment to international
buyers.

Gas supplies are also flagged to have a key role in the transition from the
current coal base electricity generation to a cleaner mix of electricity
generation base on renewables, hence there will be further demands on gas
supplies. 

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