[Peakoil] Submission so far

[Leigh Kite]

That's very good Alex,

I think we need to add something in there that specifically engages anti 
depletionist arguments (eg IEA "no peak before 2030" forecasts, oil/energy 
companies fascades of "there's plenty of oil and energy for the future").

Cheers,

Leigh

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Alex P" <alex-po at trevbus.org>
To: <peakoil at act-peakoil.org>
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 1:48 PM
Subject: [Peakoil] Submission so far


This is the text of the ACT Peak Oil submission so far, to be see with the
Senate submission attached.

Comments welcome.

Probably needs explicit mention of limits to growth.

Alex
O4O4873828

ACT Peak Oil
http://act-peakoil.org


ACT Peak Oil
Submission on ACT Energy and Climate Change Policy
edited by Alex Pollard (alex-po at trevbus.org)


Office of Sustainability
Chief Minister's Department
GPO Box 158
Canberra ACT 2601

About ACT Peak Oil
ACT Peak Oil was formed early in 2005 by Canberrans who are concerned about
the imminent peak and decline of world oil production.
ACT Peak Oil is pleased that the ACT Government has launched a consultative
process for developing energy and climate change policies for the ACT. The
Government's discussion papers released shows that is aware of the
importance of these issues and is also aware that energy and climate change
policy require community engagement with the process. Tackling these issues
requires the community accept that there need for self-imposed constraints
on our resource consumption. This is not an easy message for elected
representatives to sell back to the voters if the voters are not already
receptive to it.
ACT Peak Oil is primarily about raising awareness of the peaking of world
oil production and what the realistic alternatives to oil are (and are
not). We recognise the importance of getting the unpalatable facts of oil
depletion across to people so that we can make realistic decisions. The
alternative is to be distracted by and mislead into non-solutions, such as
war.
We have been invited to appear before the Senate inquiry into Australia's
oil supplies on May 12. Our submission to the inquiry is attached . In
addition to that, we make some suggestions specifically for the ACT.
Peak Oil
The Office of Sustainability would already be familiar with the concept of
oil peak. The Chief Minister alludes to it in his foreword to the energy
discussion paper, referring to oil supplies being unable to keep up with
demand. Peak Oil is specifically the peak of oil production in absolute
terms. That is, not just can supply not keep up with demand, but supply
shrinks year on year, forever. That is, there is no respite to be found in
merely stabilising oil consumption. The problem is to become, over time, as
independent of oil as possible.  The Peak may have even passed already and
we are badly under-prepared.
Concrete action required
Our most important message is that the ACT Government, along with all
governments, needs to take urgent, concrete action to prepare Canberrans
for much higher oil prices and even actual oil scarcity. At the same time,
actions to ameliorate oil peak need to be carefully considered against
certain constraints, not least of which is carbon emissions.
For the sake of its residents the ACT Government should start to make up
for lost time and the failures of the Commonwealth. In doing so, the ACT
Government would also provide leadership in national forums.
General Principles
In our Senate submission we outlined a number of principles worth bearing
in mind whenever evaluating options for peak oil mitigation. We urge the
ACT Government to commit to these principles.
Interstate Rail
Post-peak, rail will be easier to maintain than bitumen road surfaces and
offers advantages in fuel efficiency. Electrified rail can also be powered
by non fossil-fuel energy.
The Canberra-Sydney rail link will soon be improved by an upgrade from the
circa 1917 signaling system which mandates stops at all stations. This will
improve trip times by around 25 minutes. The major remaining bottle-neck is
the Sydney metropolitan network. If this were fixed, rail would be
comparable with a car or bus trip. CountryLink currently also imposes a
120km/h speed limit.
Ironically, the ACT's standard unleaded petrol supply actually arrives via
the Sydney-Canberra rail link. Specialist fuels arrive by road .
The new bulky goods precinct in Fyshwick should accommodate a switch to
freight by rail as it lies adjacent to the line.
Urban Rail
ACT Peak Oil believes that the option of electrified mass transit must be
evaluated in the likely scenario of extremely high oil prices. Bus-based
public transport is vulnerable to a liquid fuels crisis. Whereas
electrified mass transit can be powered by electricity from any source.
If provision is to be made for light rail within the ACT, it may be
worthwhile at the outset to make provision for upgrade to heavy rail at
little extra expense.
Years of supply left
In a number of places in the discussion papers reliance is placed upon
fossil-fuel supplies lasting for a specified number of years. When growth
in demand for such fuels is growing year-on-year - exponentially - the
number of years of oil, gas or coal available becomes questionable. Even
more so when in the event of an oil crunch, we will turn likely turn to gas
and coal, exhausting these resources even faster than expected.
Nuclear energy
In discussing nuclear energy, there should be a clear distinction made
between nuclear power sources which involve dangerous and long-lasting
radioactive fuels and waste, and potentially "clean" technologies such as
nuclear fusion. Uranium fission has many difficulties over its entire life-
cycle, even before we consider the how oil scarcity will impact on the
mining of uranium. Fusion offers the potential for cheap energy with little
or no radioactive waste. For instance, the "focus fusion" concept is for
small-scale and economical fusion power generated in the neighbourhood .
The process relies on fusing a hydrogen and boron gas, and produces only
helium. Neither the inputs nor outputs are radioactive. The proponents are
seeking funding after successful experiments at a number of universities
and claim they can achieve what the massive ITER project aims for but at
much lower cost.
Compressed Air Cars
One technology which we think should be evaluated is the compressed air
car. Reliant only on an electric-powered air compressor, drivers "charge"
their car at a service station with highly compressed air, on which the
car's "motor" runs. The ACT Government could help establish a compressed
air station to evaluate the concept.
Paradigm shift: Supply-centric to technology-centric
An inevitable result of the shift away from fossil fuels to renewable
sources is a paradigm shift - whereas previously those with the raw fuel
have been the chief beneficiaries, having ongoing income from dependent
consumers, renewable power uses inputs which are essentially free. Hence
the main profit centre is developing and producing the most effective
renewable power devices. This fits the ACT economy perfectly. As the
discussion papers say, the ACT is a price taker with no fossil fuel
resources. However the ACT has an exceptional body of expertise in
sustainable energy systems. This is already being born out by the
commercialisation of the ANU's sliver cell technology. The ACT can use its
predicament to spur development of technologies it needs to guarantee its
future. Technologies such as the ANU's solar concentrator are ready and
waiting for these opportunities.



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