[Peakoil] draft letter

[Alex P]

The opinion "Oil-reliant nations walking the steep slope of Huppert's peak" 
(CT, 11/10/2005) provides a useful overview of the problems of world oil 
supply. Though the correct name is actually "Hubbert's Peak", named after 
Marion King Hubbert, who successfully predicted that the peak of US 
mainland oil production would occur around 1970.

Hubbert surmised that rates of oil production follow a rough bell curve. 
Hubbert's Peak is the point at which oil production reaches its maximum 
yearly output. The cumulative production before and after the peak is 
approximately equal. But the price of oil before the Peak is low, and 
afterward, very high. What's more, as production increases prior to the 
peak, energy forecasters become accustomed to production always matching 
ever-increasing demand. They even start assuming oil prices are in long-
term decline. But as the peak passes, supply contracts and the price surges 
upward.

Our society, lulled into believing there are no limits to oil supply, is 
badly unprepared. Thus far people have not been given a complete picture, 
rather prices have been left to do the talking. This has limited debate to 
supposed fixes on the supply-side such as ethanol and fuel excise cuts. But 
conservation measures are essential. We should not be wasting public money 
or time on dubious or self-defeating measures while the peak looms.


Alex Pollard
Convenor
ACT Peak Oil Awareness

alex-po at trevbus.org
O4O4873828
http://act-peakoil.org