[Peakoil] Peak Oil mention in last night's Perspective program on ABC radio national

[Jenny Goldie]

[see paragraphs marked in red. Jenny]

Perspective 4 October  2005  - Jenny Goldie 

[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/perspective/stories/s1474533.htm] 

I'm often asked how big Australia's population should be. 25 million? 30 million? 50 million?

"Ten million," I reply. To fill the inevitable silence that follows I add: ".at current levels of consumption." In an effort to resume dialogue I say: "We could probably support the current population of 20 million if we cut consumption and energy use in half." 

"But what about the economy?" they ask, assuming a bigger population is needed for economic growth. They seem unaware that in the world rankings table based on GDP per capita, Australia lies 17th. Of the 16 countries above ours, all but two - the US and Canada - have populations smaller than ours. There is simply no correlation at this end of the table between wealth and population size or wealth and population growth. At the other end of course, there is a high correlation between poverty and high population growth rates. Timor Leste, for instance, has the double distinction of being the world's poorest country and having the highest fertility rate of 8.3 children per family.

I often wonder why the people who advocate large families and high population growth rates want to kick us down, not up, the wealth rankings table.

But wealth is not the fundamental issue here. A population can only grow as big as its resource base allows. Australia is a big country geographically and has some significant mineral reserves. But it is largely arid, has poor thin soils and variable rainfall, subject to both droughts and flooding rains. It simply cannot sustain the same kind of population that the continental US has, which is about the same size but with 14 times the population. And while Australia is doing well economically, almost all its environmental indicators are in decline. Most significantly, we are losing biodiversity along the coast where population growth is greatest - where urban development is cementing over natural habitat of other species. And it is just as bad on farms. We have already lost half our bird species across the grazing and cropping lands of the southern half of the continent. 

In Australia, water is the resource in least supply, and thus the one that determines how big we can grow. During the prolonged drought of recent years, all our southern cities have been subject to water restrictions. Yet we are now warned that climate change will make droughts more severe and frequent. Water restrictions may become a permanent feature in many places. Perth seems to be in the grip of climate change already, with run-off declining by a third over the past 25 years. While it seems to be getting wetter in the north and centre of the country, all our southern cities are likely to be drier in the future. 

But water is only one aspect of it, temperature another. Environmental scientist Tim Flannery forecast recently that a temperature increase of three degrees by the end of the century may push Australian agriculture, already marginal, to the wall. 

Another factor that may push Australian farming over the edge is a decline in the availability of cheap oil. Our industrial-style agriculture is heavily dependent on oil and gas for running machinery, producing fertiliser and transporting products to market. As demand from the two emerging economies, China and India, increases, at some point soon we will pass global maximum production, or Peak Oil, and demand will exceed supply for ever after, eventually pushing up the price to unaffordable levels. The ramifications for agriculture, our ability to feed ourselves and to export to others, are enormous. 

In answering that question about what size population Australia can sustain, the 10 or 20 million I cited before only really applies in a world with an abundance of cheap oil. It does not take into account the need to reduce carbon emissions by 60 per cent globally by mid-century to stabilise the atmosphere. The two emerging catastrophes - climate change and the end of the oil age - demand that we rethink our future. We must 'power-down': move away from a carbon economy, travel less, grow food locally, have fewer children. We may even have to contemplate a non-coercive one-child policy for a couple of generations.

What then should the answer be to the question: what population can Australia sustain? Once the oil runs out, and if indeed Australian agriculture is no longer viable by the end of the century, the honest answer may be as low as two or three million. It is almost too hard to contemplate; yet we must consider it as a serious possibility and plan accordingly. 

Guests on this program: 
  Jenny Goldie 
  National President
  Sustainable Population Australia inc 

Further information: 

  http://www.population.org.au/ 


Producer: Sue Clark 
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