[Peakoil] Early review of DVD "Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature"

[Keith Thomas]

I have just watched the video "Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature" which was 
released in the UK last month.  The title carries with it the main 
message Colin Campbell seems to be making in the documentary: peak oil 
is imposed by nature, so governments should 'come out' and tell us 
that; we can then join together in preparing for the future.  Until 
governments do this, he says there'll be conspiracy theories, with 
those who are aware blaming government and the oil companies.

I don't have a tv or a DVD player so I went next door to watch it 
(first time I have ever used a DVD in a player).  I tell you this to 
let you know I am not a sophisticated user of the medium.

In my view the DVD takes 28 minutes to tell us what could have been 
conveyed in about 5 minutes if it wasn't strung out with supposedly 
clever use of images – which I found to be an irritation, especially 
when there was nothing being said. I didn't need a sequence of Campbell 
playing the accordion, or Campbell walking along the clifftops.

Apart from Campbell's message, the thing I found most useful overall 
was the non-American accents of Campbell and a young English risk 
analyst.  Matt Simmons has a mild American accent (he was interviewed 
in London) and Michael Ruppert appeared too.

The DVD opens with a strung-out story if Campbell being monitored by 
the CIA to see how close ASPO is to breaking into the public 
consciousness. It refers to "vested interests and other forces have 
done their utmost to prevent the information from reaching the public 
consciousness".

Campbell makes the important point that "we have not been here before". 
  No one can predict what will happen.  The complexity of our economy, 
our society and our environment and their interactions is such that 
there are no experts.  Some people will talk and write about it more 
than others, but no one knows more than anyone else about the future.

Although the DVD case says "it draws up lines of possible consequences 
for mankind", I found these very light-on – for the reason, no doubt, 
that I have just mentioned.

Campbell is filmed in Stavanger (the '-anger' rhymes with banger and 
hangar, not danger; the emphasis is on the second syllable) and there 
is some Norwegian language content translated with subtitles. While in 
Norway, Campbell tracks the arrival at their peak of the North Sea oil 
and gas fields.

The risk analyst draws on his past experience to say that when an 
isolated incident (like a single refinery going off line for a few days 
or a storm in the Gulf of Mexico disrupting supplies) has a notable 
effect on global prices, it points to the situation approaching a 
crisis point.

Simmons's first contribution was of limited value; I don't think he 
prepared for it and seems to be in the documentary only because he is 
Matthew Simmons.  For what it's worth he did say "Demand will exceed 
supply, and supply equals use".

His second contribution was the obvious one that problems – even 
problems as big as this one – don't need to destroy society, but they 
are far more likely to do so if we leave them unattended for long 
enough.

His third contribution was that if you think climate change scores 3 
out of ten in terms of its impact, then peak oil scores ten out of ten. 
(Which is about what you'd expect from an American suit.)

A Norwegian-speaking (?) member of Simmons's staff predicts that a 
massive rise in coal consumption will replace oil, especially in China. 
  He is aware of the immense environmental impact this will have.

Chris Skrebowski looked into the future a bit "We have to face the 
possibility that we will have to give a much larger role to government" 
and that the government would find itself in an almost wartime 
situation with regard to the need for rationing.  He predicts the 
military and the police would receive priority; but he did not mention 
who would be third – no mention of agriculture!

Campbell was filmed talking to an almost empty committee room at the 
House of Commons taking to a few MPs.  I think I saw about 6 and 
guessed there might have been 10.  Campbell said later there were 
20-30.  Perhaps the others didn't want to be recorded in such company!  
Notably no ministers turned up.  Campbell says ministers won't comment 
"for fear of causing the panic which they are working to prevent."

There's a lovely, if brief, shot of a wheelwright in India putting the 
finishing touches to the steel hoop on a wooden cartwheel.  The message 
is that peak oil will affect most the greatest consumers of oil, not 
the places like India. I predict we'll be enticing Indian wheelwrights 
to Australia in the future, not Indian computer programmers.

The documentary finishes with the statement that "Colin Campbell and 
Matthew Simmons are probably the most important whistleblowers of our 
time. If now only those in power and our politicians might show a 
similar civil courage ... we have zero time!"

The credits say that it was produced with support of "Freedom of 
Expression Federation, Oslo and the Norwegian Film Fund"

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Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
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