[Peakoil-website-changes] [DokuWiki] page changed: senate_oil_inquiry_submission

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Date        : 2006/02/23 20:17
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Old Revision: http://act-peakoil.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=senate_oil_inquiry_submission&rev=1140435400
New Revision: http://act-peakoil.org/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=senate_oil_inquiry_submission
Edit Summary: 
User        : 

@@ -17,8 +17,49 @@
  
  =====   a. projections of oil production and demand in Australia and globally and the implications for availability and pricing of transport fuels in Australia =====
   
  
+ In forecasting future all production, the important issue is not
+ when oil will run out. The problem is knowing when the peak of world
+ oil production will occur, how much oil will be produced in that year (the greatest amount
+ ever), and how steep the downslope will be.
+ 
+ The world oil supply picture is clouded by a lack of accurate
+ data. For instance, according to //Twilight in the Desert: The
+ coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy// (Simmons 2004,
+ p80-81), estimates supposedly made by anonymous sources at major
+ world ports as to the volume, source and destination of oil shipments
+ have become the basis for official IEA oil supply figures. This is
+ unacceptable, especially as many experts are now predicting an
+ imminent and permanent decline in oil production.
+ 
+ Simmons' book casts doubt on the state of Saudi reserves. Saudi
+ Arabia, held up as the world's last swing producer, with plentiful
+ reserves that will supposedly keep up with demand, has been very
+ secretive. Using technical reports of the Society of Petroleum
+ Engineers he demonstrates that for whatever reason Saudi Arabia is
+ not being upfront about the true state of its reserves. For instance,
+ he tellingly describes how, while Aramco (the Saudi state oil
+ company) has been extracting oil at unsustainable rates at various
+ times, little apparent attempt was made to use other fields now
+ touted as major oil sources for the coming decades. This would be at
+ odds with good reserve management, as extracting oil too fast from a
+ field can reduce the total amount of crude ultimately recovered. Why
+ hasn't Saudi Arabia brought these bountiful future fields on line
+ already? Maybe they are not so bountiful. Simmons doubts these fields
+ will cover the shortfall as Ghawar and other major fields go into
+ decline. If Saudi Arabian production declines, the world will have
+ peaked. Australians could then expect dramatic increases in fuel
+ prices. And Saudi Arabia is not the only country with dubious reserve figures. 
+ 
+ The essential point is, we don't know enough to be certain.
+ Prudent management means at least knowing what we don't know.
+ 
+ **Recommendation: the Commonwealth help initiate urgent
+ international efforts to improve the transparency of both world oil
+ reserve data (proven, probable and possible) and production data; and
+ that the Precautionary Principle be applied in formulating Australian
+ oil supply policies.**
  
  =====   b. potential of new sources of oil and alternative transport fuels to meet a significant share of Australia’s fuel demands, taking into account technological developments and environmental and economic costs =====
   
  
@@ -52,5 +93,4 @@
  ==== Rail ====
  
  ==== Systems redesign to reduce the 'need' to travel/transport ====
  If people live near where they want to be (for work, school, shopping, church and friends) there is less need for them to travel. If people have the land and the skills and the willingness, they can grow their own food, reducing the need for transport (of food) and travel (for shopping). If neighbourhoods become communities, there can be exchange of food, clothing, skills, services, further reducing dependence on oil.
- 



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