[Peakoil-announce] this letter was printed in the Canberra Times yesterday

[Keith Thomas]

On 24/08/2010, at 9:04 AM, Jenny Goldie wrote:

Who can disagree with Ian Lowe that climate change is the most important issue in this election (Climate change is most vital issue for next govt, Opinion, 18 August)? 

But there is another issue of almost equal magnitude that is being virtually ignored.

That issue is peak oil. What is it? According to former oil company geologist Colin Campbell, peak oil is "the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion." US oil production peaked in the 1970s and is now 30 per cent less. Australia's oil production peaked in 2000. Both countries have steadily imported more and more oil since their respective peaks, however, now global supplies are around or past the peak - many analysts say it was in July 2008 - and importing oil will become increasingly expensive as demand outstrips supply.

What does this mean for the Australian economy? A lot unfortunately, as oil underpins our whole industrialised economy, including agriculture. Everything that is made from oil will become more expensive as oil prices inevitably rise. Unless there is a coherent strategy to wean ourselves of oil and find alternative sources of energy, we will face crisis. 

One who warned about real levels of oil supply from Saudi fields was the investment banker Matthew Simmons, author of 'Twilight in the Desert'. His sudden death last week at age 67 is a huge loss. 


Jenny Goldie
Michelago  
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A similar reader's letter was published in Crikey last Friday, the day before the election (Great minds think alike ....):

Glen Fergus writes: Re. "Climate change: one-on-one with the elephant in the room" (Wednesday, item 10). Crikey is quick to criticise others for missing the big issues in this campaign. But what about the ones that you've ignored? Try:

1. Australia's relationship with our region. This only rated a mention when the bleeding heart wanted to talk asylum-seekers and where not to put them -- like in the micro-state of Nauru (pop. ~10,000), or on Timor-Leste (pop. ~1M). But the big one, the only country with which we have what amounts to a border (10 minutes in a tinny), never got a mention.

That's Papua New Guinea; population around 7M, and exploding; AIDS infection rate above one in a hundred, and exploding; governance disgraceful; school system collapsing; corruption rife. And we're quietly running a resources boom there of the kind that has destroyed stronger states.

2. Peak Oil. Australia's self-sufficiency in this commodity is in a state of collapse, so we'll be right there at the front line of the coming global scramble for the little that's left on the export market. At Wednesday night's forum's, Mr Abbott had this to say in answer to a question on a matter critical to our country's future:

"Ok, well, you know, the interesting thing about oil reserves is that they’re always being expanded. I mean, at any one time, people think we have say 20 or 30 years of oil reserves. 20 or 30 years later, people still think we have 20, 30, 40 or 50 years of oil reserves, as the case may be and the reason for that is because as the technology changes, more reserves become accessible, and as the price changes, reserves that weren’t really accessible become more accessible.

So, look, I know about the concept of peak oil. I don’t claim to be the world’s greatest expert in it, but I’m sceptical as to its value as a tool for policy makers because at the right price, we’ve got a lot more reserves than we currently think. With better technology, we’ve got a lot more reserves than we currently think."

He meant, maybe, "I'm not a tech-head on this" … or was it, "That's absolute crap"?


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Keith Thomas
www.evfit.com
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