[Peakoil-announce] Gasoline stockpiles falling dramatically

[Alex Pollard]

Hi folks,

As predicted in May, we are experiencing a supply crunch. This is the main 
reason the oil price is rising. The falling US dollar and other 
geopolitical factors also contribute.

Alex
O4O4873828

ACT Peak Oil
http://act-peakoil.org


On Tue May 15 14:28:40 2007, "Alex P" <alex-po at trevbus.org> wrote :

> Forwarded from the ROEOZ list.
> 
> More evidence that the Peak has happened, OECD nations have drawn down 
> nearly 1 million barrels per day from stockpiles during the first quarter 
> just to keep prices stable. World production is approx 85 millions 
barrels 
> per day. Demand is outstripping supply. And this drawn-down is set to 
grow 
> to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of the year. But stockpiles are 
> finite of course.
> 
> That means prices are going to go way up within months.
> 
> Alex
> O4O4873828
> 
> ACT Peak Oil
> http://act-peakoil.org
> 
> 
> ------------- Forwarded message follows -------------
> 
> 
> from ASPO-USA's Peak Oil Review, 14 May 2007
> 
> Gasoline stockpiles remain a serious problem 
> 
> The EIA reported last Wednesday that US gasoline stocks rose by 400,000 
> barrels the previous week, the first increase in 13 weeks. A closer 
> inspection of the report, however, shows that the increase was due to a 
1.1 
> million barrel increase in inventories on the West Coast, not across the 
> country. The news caused gasoline futures to jump 9.5 cents to $2.326 a 
> gallon on Thursday, and an additional 2.6 cents on Friday to settle at 
> $2.35 a gallon. In this week's retail price report, nationwide gasoline 
> prices are likely to exceed the record of $3.069 per gallon set in 
> September 2005. The all-time, inflation-adjusted high of $3.22 per 
gallon, 
> set in March 1981, is in sight. 
> 
> Over the last few weeks, however, the demand for gasoline has been 
dropping 
> and is now just one percent above last year's demand for the same period. 
> This is down by about 1.5 percent from the abnormally high demand of two 
> months ago. 
> 
> The government remains optimistic that high prices will dampen demand, 
> attract more gasoline imports, and encourage refiners to increase 
> production. The EIA projects that although gas prices will be over $3 in 
> May; they will drop back into the $2.90s during June and July and 
possibly 
> increase again in August. The EIA says flat out they do not expect gas 
> prices to get anywhere near $4 so long as there are no significant 
> unplanned refinery outages, losses of crude production, or hurricane 
> damage. 
> 
> In defending the industry, an American Petroleum Institute economist told 
> Congress last week that high gasoline prices are largely due to high 
crude 
> prices and the costs of environmental mandates. He maintained that 
> improvements to refineries allow the industry to squeeze more gasoline 
and 
> diesel from each barrel of crude so that this year's average gasoline 
> production of 8.85 million b/d is a new record. 
> 
> Many paint a darker picture of the prospects for gasoline prices and 
> availability later this summer (see this week's Commentary). The IEA is 
> talking about a 1.6 million b/d shortfall between demand and production 
> later this year and notes that significant drops are occurring in North 
Sea 
> and West African production. In March OECD stockpiles fell by 17.1 
million 
> barrels, or an average of 550,000 b/d. This brought the average stock 
draw 
> during the first quarter to what the IEA called a "dramatic" 930,000 b/d. 
> The IEA also noted last week that "gasoline stocks are tight and may 
> tighten further in June unless refinery capacity rises more sharply than 
> current forecasts suggest." 
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----
> 
> 
> That is incredible.
> 
> The average of all 24 OECD countries' stockpiles over 3 months fell by 
0.93 
> Mb/d.
> 
> In other words, supply is lagging demand by nearly a million barrels per 
day
> 
> and they are keeping prices stable by drawing down stockpiles.
> 
> This is really starting to look like we will hit the brick wall this year.
> 
> Dave